It’s been said that “Confirmation bias is everywhere once you know to look for it.” Confirmation bias is what happens when you pay attention to certain results because you were expecting them. We are more likely to notice stuff that supports what we already believe than stuff that goes against it. Perhaps it is an ironic topic to discuss in a confirmation class, but it came up tonight in more ways than one.
We discussed prophecy tonight. In the Bible, prophecies are not clear, irrevocable predictions of the future. Jesus and his disciples use the word: fulfill (literally: fill fully), to talk about prophecy that has come to pass. This is because there are very few prophecies in the Bible that make their full meaning simple or obvious. Rather, it takes an event or a new teaching to “fill it full” so that we can clearly see why God used the words He did.
For example, Daniel saw “one who looked like a son of man” who entered heaven and sat next to God. This didn’t make any sense to anyone and the Hebrews simply had to make their best guesses. Then Jesus arrived and began calling Himself the “Son of Man.” Jesus was a human son who is also able to reign as God - the meaning is filled up. We can now make sense of it. This is true all through the New Testament. Jesus “filled full” several snippets of prophecy which nobody understood. He was born of a virgin, He came out of Egypt, He rode a donkey, He cared about the Temple, He didn’t break any bones. The list goes on and on.
This is where the skeptic might declare confirmation bias: “You think Jesus is special because he rode a donkey?” “I’ve never broken a bone, am I the Chosen one?” “Wasn’t all of Israel called out of Egypt?” “That verse about the virgin wasn’t even talking about the messiah!” The accusation is that Jesus seems to fulfill prophecy because we are looking hard and squeezing in things that don’t belong together. The students had a taste of this themselves when they played a scavenger hunt game which was really fun, matching Bible word cards to wacky categories. Not everything that was paired truly matched, but because we were trying to make matches we found connections. How do we refute this?
I fear I explained it poorly tonight, but I’d say that such a view fails to account for the way that Jesus “fills full” the entire Old Testament. It is hard to overcome confusion when you are told from the start that prophecy is confusing (the other place we saw confirmation bias).
Jesus is the one who makes all of the Old Testament make sense. And because of Jesus, most of the Bible is not confusing. Once we understand who he is, passages that once seemed like gibberish are clearly about Him. This is why we read Isaiah 53 together. It describes a sufferer who dies for his people like a sheep. His violent punishment that he didn’t deserve is said to be for us. Then we learn that he will live to see future generations (even though he was killed). Jesus, who died and rose to save us all, made this make sense.
When Jesus came so many questions were answered, but Confirmation Bias cannot account for answers to questions we didn’t know to ask. Maybe that’s why God made His prophecy so darn confusing!